AV: Yeh, Neh or Meh

[indigoneutrino]

Since it’s now less than a week to the referendum, I thought I’d post some of my thoughts on the Alternative Vote system. Since I’ve lent some degree of online support to the Yes campaign, I’ve been getting quite a few emails from people telling my how I can do more to promote AV and help win the referendum. The problem is, even though I would like a yes outcome in the referendum, I’m struggling to be enthusiastic about it. The referendum only gives voters the choice between First Past The Post and the Alternative Vote, and even though I do prefer AV to FPTP, it’s not my first choice and not something I really want to make a fuss over to switch the voting system to.

I think the main issues with these choices come down to this: First Past The Post seeks to please the greatest number of people possible, even if the greatest number of people is still a minority; whereas AV seeks to disappoint as few people as possible, even if it means the most popular first choice candidate doesn’t always win. Neither of them is truly proportional. We're being asked to choose between a bad system, and one which is only better in some ways, and worse in others.

If this referendum was going to be done properly we'd be given a choice between FPTP, AV, Single Transferable Vote, AV+ and maybe other voting systems, but since David Cameron is so determined to keep FPTP that was never going to happen. So there's only a choice between two systems, each of which falls short of true proportional representation. In my view, proportional representation is the only way to get a parliament that is truly representative of how the country voted, but I accept the simplest form of PR isn't the most practical when it comes to allocating seats. Therefore, I think it's important to consider which out of FPTP and AV is is most proportionally representative. I think that depends on whether you consider a system that gives as many people as possible (which may only be a minority of the constituency) their ideal choice of candidate to be more representative than a system that guarrantees at least 50% of the constituency get a MP they are satisfied with, even if the candidate wasn't their first choice. Personally, I come down on the side of the latter, although I can understand why other people would see the former as being a better system. I particularly support the optional voting method where voters don't have to rank every available candidate, which means that if they only vote for the candidates they would actually be happy to have represent them they are more likely to get one of those candidates, whereas under FPTP there is the possiblility of a majority of constituents being dissatified with the MP they get. (I don't know whether or not ranking all candidates will be made optional or compulsory if the voting system were to be chnaged to AV, but if it were optional I think this strengthens the case for making the switch.)

Another issue that's been raised by both the Yes and No campaigns is the equality of votes. I've got to say it's annoyed me somewhat how both sides have been insisting the other side is completely unfair, while failing to acknowledge their preferred system has flaws as well. Under FPTP, the weight of a person's vote depends on the size of their constituency and whether they live in a marginal or a safeseat. Under AV, one person's second or third choice may count more than another person's first choice. Again, I'm not entirely comfortable with either of those scenarios, although if I have to choose between one or the other I would go for AV. For example, voters in marginal constituencies under FPTP have more influence over the distribution of seats in the House of Commons that voters in safeseats, whereas giving people the chance to rank the candidates in order of preference would mean everybody's vote has an impact on who gets to form a government. (I think this would be even better with AV+, but we're not being given that as an option.) I accept there are still issues with some votes having more weight thatn others, but I think that there is less variability in the weight of votes under AV than under FPTP. I don't think it's ideal, but it is preferable.

Regarding some of the claims the No campaign have made about AV leading to more coalitions, I'd like to say, "Yes. And?" Many people on the No campaign are dissatisfied with the current government and think that's a reason to believe all coalitions are bad. There are plenty of countries in the world with coalition governments that manage fine (I believe Finland hasn't had a single-party government since it gained independence, and it seems to have gotten on better than some countries that have had single-party governments). There have been plenty of bad single-party governments in the UK and elsewhere in the world, but nobody's using that as an argument against single party governments. Therefore, I think No's argument that AV would lead to more coalitions is pretty stupid. Coalitions aren't a bad thing per se, so I don't see why that should be seen as a negative consequence of AV. I'm trying to look at the pros and cons of both AV and FPTP, but I think the fact that one of them makes coalitions more likely is neither here nor there, so I haven't taken that into account when deciding which is better.

Deviating slightly from the issue at hand now, I'd also like to mention how I have been a bit irritated at the way both the Yes and No campaigns have been attacking each other's integrity over the past couple of weeks. At the start of the campaign they were actually arguing about the merits of each of their preferred voting systems, but recently they seem to have been focussing more on accusing the other of conducting a dirty campaign. I think they each would have served their cause better if they'd just stuck to focussing on the issues surrounding changing the voting system rather than trying to make it an issue about the people conducting the campaign. Really, the manner in which each side has campaigned shouldn't be considered when people vote on what system they would like to have on May 5th. What should be considered is the impact changing the voting system would have on the outcome of future elections, and whether or not this effect would be positive or detrimental. There are up sides and down sides to both FPTP and AV, and I don't think either really comes out as clearly being a much better system than the other. Even though I'm supporting the Yes campaign to some extent, I can still understand why some people are against it. I would however hope that in this referendum people vote on what they genuinely think would give the best outcome in terms of electoral reform, rather than voting tactically either against Nick Clegg or David Cameron (even though I accept that, in reality, most people don't really care about voting systems and simply want to use the referendum as a chance to show their dissatisfaction with the government. Understandable, I suppose, but it's not often the government gives you chance to vote on something that will directly affect you so it would be good if people made the most of it.)

As I said earlier, I would like a 'yes' result in the referendum even though I'm not hugely enthusiastic about it. My main reasons for this are that even though AV is far from ideal I think it is an improvement on FPTP, and if the voting system is not changed now then it's unlikely they'll be any chance of changing to a genuinely better and more proportional system any time in the near future. That said though, even if the outcome of the referendum is a 'no' then at least the voting system won't have been made any worse.